贝尔格莱德（塞尔维亚），6月13日（Seenews） -伟德国际ios下载 塞尔维亚在2022年和4％以及2023年的稳定增长过程中，因为政府的声音宏观经济政策框架可以帮助经济承受俄罗斯在乌克兰战争的冲击，并增加总部位于柏林通货膨胀的范围评级周一表示。

俄罗斯 - 乌克兰战争代表了塞尔维亚的小型经济及其影响在短期内增加强烈的通货膨胀压力，但该国的中型增长前景仍然有利。在国内。

"We forecast average yearly headline inflation of around 9% in 2022, broadly in line with that of peer economies, with Serbia’s current account deficit to widen to 6% of GDP this year from 4.4% of GDP in 2021, mainly due to the impact of higher energy and other commodity prices," Scope noted.

After projected growth of 3% for this year, growth is expected to stabilise around 4% in 2023, broadly in line with the economy’s growth potential of 4%-4.5% over the medium term, backed by the planned investment in transport and green infrastructure, with financing from a debut 1 billion green bond issued last year, as well as steady foreign direct investment.

"We assigned Serbia a first-time rating of BB+ with Stable Outlook on 3 June, accounting for a number of the country’s vulnerabilities, including the reliance on foreign-currency funding of the public and private sectors, structural current account deficits and institutional deficiencies. At the same time, Serbia benefits from monetary policy discipline, which has resulted in relatively stable exchange rate dynamics and adequate forex reserves contributing to low pre-crisis inflation," Scope said.

Despite significant hard currency sales of a net 2.3 billion euro ($2.4 billion) over the first four months of 2022 to protect the exchange rate, the central bank's gross forex reserves of 14.1 billion at end-April are comfortable, covering five months’ worth of imports and equivalent to twice outstanding short-term external debt.

俄罗斯不到塞尔维亚总货物出口总额的4％，其进口商品的5％略高于5％，而后者几乎一半反映了石油和天然气的进口，而乌克兰却不到塞尔维亚的出口和进口商品的1％。

“我们确实预计不会通过贯穿保加利亚的管道对塞尔维亚的俄罗斯天然气供应没有重大破坏。但是，欧盟对俄罗斯石油的禁运可能会产生重大的不利经济影响，因为塞尔维亚依靠在包括塞尔维亚在内的欧盟国家运输的供应，在Aleksandar Vucic总统任职期间，已经观察到了近90％的天然气和60％的石油。经济和外交政策的连续性已被观察到，包括平衡财政纪律和增长的承诺 - 从IMF政策支持中受益，”范围解释了。

缺失是深远的机构改革，以减少长期以来的公共部门效率低下，尤其是在塞尔维亚的庞大且效率低下的国有企业部门中，这对财政绩效和对法治的尊重更加尊重。The government faces a difficult task in balancing relations with Russia – given reliance on energy imports, including a recent three-year gas deal with Russia, and the countries’ political ties – with economic and institutional convergence with the EU, without jeopardising future reforms and investor confidence.

Scope总结说，塞尔维亚和科索沃之间关系的更广泛的正常化是塞尔维亚欧盟加入的前提，该日期可能会从计划中的2025年大量延迟，这仍然是一个长期的挑战。

（$ = 0.959214欧元）